The 2026 NFL Black quarterback tiers

Look, you can’t win em all!

After winning the Super Bowl MVP award each of the last three seasons, it was starting to become the norm that Black quarterbacks would be in that position. Not to mention, Black quarterbacks had won four of the last seven regular-season MVPs as well.

And then this season started off with history.

A record-breaking 16 Black quarterbacks started Week 1: Patrick Mahomes, Lamar Jackson, Jayden Daniels, Cam Ward, Caleb Williams, Michael Penix Jr., C.J. Stroud, Russell Wilson, Dak Prescott, Jalen Hurts, Justin Fields, Jordan Love, Spencer Rattler, Bryce Young, Kyler Murray, and Geno Smith. And yet this season’s Super Bowl quarterback matchup was between Sam Darnold and Drake Maye. The conference championships feature those two plus Matthew Stafford and Jarrett Stidham. Shoot, Mahomes and Jackson didn’t even make the playoffs!

So, it wasn’t exactly a banner year for Black quarterbacks like 2024. But what goes down must eventually come back up. Williams, leading the Bears back to the playoffs for the first time since 2020, looks like a future star. Ward has a new offensive coordinator (Brian Daboll) who knows how to unlock young quarterbacks. Mahomes, Jackson and Daniels will all hopefully bounce back from injuries.

That can’t be said for everyone else.

Below we look at the five classes of Black NFL quarterbacks headed into the offseason, ranging from those with ultimate job security (it’s still one person, and you know who he is), to those who still can stand to improve, to those likely to be changing teams in the near future.

He gone

Justin Fields: I just don’t know how many more chances Fields will get. He’s an amazing athlete, but aside from Week 1 against the Steelers (218 passing yards, 48 rushing yards, three total touchdowns) he hasn’t looked like a starting quarterback for most of his career. Jets owner Woody Johnson is fed up, trashing Fields’ play to the media. Backup Tyrod Taylor has proven to be a capable backup for most of his 14-year career, but he likely won’t be the replacement for Fields in New York.

Russell Wilson: This feels like the final days of Wilson. The Giants were his third team in as many seasons, and each season has ended with Wilson heading out of the door. Wilson, playing on a one-year contract, was benched after just three starts (all losses) for rookie Jaxson Dart, who looks to be the immediate future for New York. On his way out, Wilson said he played in Week 2 on a torn hamstring, which he nor the team ever disclosed.

Geno Smith: Amazing how things can change in a year. Nearly 365 days ago, Seahawks head coach Mike Macdonald said Smith was “our quarterback” for the 2025 season. That obviously wasn’t the case, with the Seahawks making it to the Super Bowl with Sam Darnold, and Smith, who signed with the Raiders, regressing further from his highs from 2022-23. Smith led the league with 17 interceptions while throwing 19 touchdown passes. All signs point to the Raiders taking Heisman-winning Indiana quarterback Fernando Mendoza with the No. 1 overall pick in April’s draft.

Kyler Murray: Murray has been on the trading block for what has felt like half a decade now. He lost another head coach when Jonathon Gannon was fired on Jan. 5 after just three seasons (15-36 record). Murray is viewed more as a trade asset for Arizona rather than the Cardinals’ long-term option at quarterback.

Jacoby Brissett: He played decently last season when filling in for Murray. Brissett set the NFL record for completions in a game (47) against the San Francisco 49ers. But the 33-year-old will more than likely continue to be a high-value backup going forward.

Spencer Rattler: Rattler won the starting job in New Orleans over rookie Tyler Shough during training camp, but he only held onto the job for seven weeks. In his final two starts in Weeks 7-8, Rattler threw four interceptions and lost a fumble. He was also sacked seven times. It’s hard to see Rattler suiting up in New Orleans next season.

He’s likely on the clock

Jalen Hurts: This might seem absurd since Hurts was the Super Bowl MVP last season, but as I wrote at the time, there were many reasons to doubt the longevity of Hurts in Philadelphia. This season saw the offense (ranked 19th) struggle again, and there was no postseason run to course correct: The Eagles were eliminated in the wild-card round by the 49ers. There are more than 100 million reasons why Hurts will be starting for the Eagles in 2026. But if the offense continues to struggle going forward (Last season’s offensive coordinator, Kevin Patullo, was removed from his duties on Jan. 13), Hurts could be playing elsewhere in 2027.

C.J. Stroud: You know things aren’t going great when someone who was once 5-19-1 as a starter for the Houston Texans was seen as a better option than Stroud in the playoffs. Backup Davis Mills was Houston’s starter from 2021-22 before sitting behind Stroud the past three seasons. Mills filled in for Stroud for four games after the latter suffered a concussion in Week 9, leading the team to a 3-1 record. In the Texans’ playoff games against the Steelers and Patriots, Stroud looked shaken and scared: He had five fumbles against Pittsburgh and a career-high four interceptions versus New England. With extension talks this offseason, it’s likely Stroud will still be in Houston next season, but it’s not certain beyond that.

Michael Penix Jr.: Penix tore the ACL in his left knee in Week 11 against the Carolina Panthers. This is the third time Penix has torn an ACL, as the first two times were to his right leg while playing at Indiana University from 2018-2021. He also had two separate season-ending injuries to his shoulders while in college. Penix, the eighth overall pick in the 2024 draft, didn’t play well last season. He had 10 total touchdowns in nine starts and was the most off-target passer (22.2%) in the league, according to TruMedia. The Falcons will likely draft, sign or trade for a game-ready backup in the event Penix isn’t ready by Week 1 next season. With a new head coach in Kevin Stefanski, Penix may have but one more season to prove himself.

Deshaun Watson: In March 2025, Browns owner Jimmy Haslam called the March 2022 trade for Watson a “big swing and miss.” Watson has played 19 games in three seasons with Cleveland. With new head coach Todd Monken, who was the offensive coordinator during Lamar Jackson’s MVP-winning 2023 season in Baltimore, maybe things will work out for Watson in 2026. But with Haslem’s comments, it seems less than likely. Watson’s eventual replacement likely won’t be …

Shedeur Sanders: Sanders played about as well as expected for a fifth-round, third-string quarterback. There were highs (186 yards and the only touchdown in a 13-6 win over the Steelers) and lows (three interceptions in a 31-3 loss to the Bears). He played well enough to surpass Dillon Gabriel in the pecking order, but with the assumed return of Watson we probably won’t see much of Sanders in 2026. 

He’s not going anywhere anytime soon

Bryce Young: Talk about snatching victory from the jaws of defeat. Entering the 2025 season, Young appeared to be on thin ice, having briefly lost his starting job to Andy Dalton in 2024 before improving in the final three games of that season. Young started the year with a stinker: 154 passing yards and three turnovers in a Week 1 loss to the Jaguars. But he played adequately the rest of the way (3,011 passing yards, 23 touchdowns and 11 interceptions) and helped the Panthers sneak into the playoffs for the first time since 2017. For that alone, he might get an extension. But at the very least, the Panthers picked up Young’s fifth-year option last month, so he’ll likely be in Carolina through 2027.

Lamar Jackson: Normally, you have to critique Jackson for how he played in the postseason. But that wasn’t the case this year, as the Ravens didn’t make it. That was partly because Jackson missed four games with injuries, and the defense was bad for most of the season. But also, Jackson didn’t look like himself with a career low in rushing attempts (67) and yards (349). After firing head coach John Harbaugh, who had been in Baltimore since 2008, and losing offensive coordinator Monken to the Browns, Jackson must shoulder even more of the load. But another bad season — or nonexistent postseason — and Jackson might finally get his wish from 2023: playing for a new team.

Dak Prescott: You just knew trouble was on the way the second Prescott told Rams owner Stan Kroenke this in August: “We will meet you in the NFC Championship.” The Rams held up their end of the bargain, but the Cowboys missed the playoffs for the second straight season. You can’t put that on Prescott, who had one of his best seasons: 4,552 yards and 32 total touchdowns. But there’s not much you can do when your defense allows the most points (30.1) and third-most yards (377) per game. Prescott signed a four-year extension in 2024.

Jordan Love: The ending to the Packers’ season overshadows the season that Love had. After the Packers beat the Bears on a game-winning interception in Week 14, they lost linebacker Micah Parsons (knee) for the remainder of the season the next week, and didn’t have Love (concussion) the following three weeks. The Packers lost all four games. Then the Bears overcame a 21-3 deficit in the wild-card round to send Green Bay packing. Otherwise, Love looked normal: 23 touchdowns and a career-low six interceptions as a starter. The team just had bad luck at the worst time.

Jayden Daniels: Daniels had your typical second-year slump from winning the Offensive Rookie of the Year award and appearing in the NFC Championship Game as a rookie. He went from 3,568 passing yards, 891 rushing yards and 31 total touchdowns in 17 games in 2024 to 1,262 passing yards, 278 rushing yards and 10 total touchdowns in seven games this season. The 10 missed games were after a sprained left knee, an injured right hamstring and a dislocated left elbow. Until I see otherwise, Daniels is the long-term starter. Meantime, he might want to add on a few pounds.

Caleb Williams: This time last year, Williams’ Bears had lost a franchise record-tying 10 games in a row during a 5-12 campaign. Working with new head coach Ben Johnson and an upgraded offensive line unlocked something in Williams, leading to a franchise-record 3,942 passing yards and 30 total touchdowns. And for nearly every game this season, you couldn’t count the Bears out: They mounted seven fourth-quarter comeback wins and nearly achieved an eighth in the divisional round against the Rams. If Williams has one more season turning broken plays into touchdowns like the one he did on fourth down against the Rams, he’ll be in that category at the bottom of this page.

Second-year starters that franchises are committed to

Cam Ward: It was ugly for last year’s No. 1 overall pick in the draft. Ward finished the season with the worst total quarterback rating (33.1), third-worst completion percentage (59.8%), and he tied with Geno Smith for most sacks taken (55.) He openly disagreed with his head coach (Brian Callahan, who was fired on Oct. 13) and his interim head coach (Mike McCoy). But there was one play that showed that Ward just has it:

Plus, Ward has new offensive coordinator Brian Daboll, who spent time in Buffalo helping to develop 2024 season NFL MVP Josh Allen.

Rookies

For the first time since 2022, no Black quarterback is expected to be taken in the first round of April’s draft. Oregon quarterback Dante Moore was projected to go as high as the No. 2 overall, but he decided to return to college next season.

He’s not going anywhere, ever

Patrick Mahomes: We’re in weird times with Mahomes. If you remove his rookie season, when he appeared in just one game, the three-time Super Bowl champion in 2025 had career lows in passing yards, completion percentage, touchdowns and passer rating, and he was on pace for a career-high in sacks taken. The Chiefs missed the playoffs for the first time since 2014, and that was all but certain before Mahomes suffered a season-ending torn ACL and LCL in his left knee in Week 15.

Mahomes could possibly return by Week 1 next season, but will he be returning to the same quality of offense that ranked 21st in the league last season? (Not likely.) Will tight end Travis Kelce return for season No. 14?

With all that said, what are the Chiefs going to do? Get rid of Mahomes?

Hahahahahahahahaha.

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