Gavin Newsom leads Kamala Harris in 2028 presidential poll. But can he win over Black voters?

A new survey from UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO gives new insight into how voters are feeling about the Democratic Party’s next presidential nominee.

A poll of California voters reveals Governor Gavin Newsom edging out former Vice President Kamala Harris in a hypothetical 2028 Democratic primary matchup. The survey of more than 1,200 registered voters shows a shift in Democratic politics, at least from the home state of Newsom and Harris, who have long been the top contenders for the party’s presidential nomination in most polls over the past year.

The survey conducted by UC Berkeley Citrin Center for Public Opinion Research-POLITICO found that 28% of Californians back Newsom, while over 14% support Harris, the 2024 Democratic nominee who lost to President Donald Trump by just over 1% of the popular vote. Voters also showed interest in other Democrats like U.S. Rep. Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez of New York, who received 12% support, and former Transportation Secretary and 2020 presidential candidate Pete Buttigieg, who received 11%.

As the Democrats prepare for the upcoming presidential election two years from now, a poll capturing a temperature check from two of the party’s most popular leaders and the voters who know them best is notable, says Democratic strategist Darryn Harris, who has worked for former U.S. Congresswoman Karen Bass and U.S. Congresswoman Sydney Kamlager-Dove.

“Perhaps what the poll is trying to get at is who are the folks who have known these people for at least the last two decades?” Darryn Harris, no relation to Kamala Harris, told theGrio. “It does make sense why you would poll Californians, especially because we are such a heavily Democratic state and because we get so many delegates and support to the presidential primary.”

But any successful path to the Democratic Party’s presidential nomination can’t happen without the support of Black voters, who overwhelmingly still back Kamala Harris, the first Black woman elected Vice President of the United States and the first Black woman to secure a presidential nomination. A March poll conducted by the Manhattan Institute found Black voters prefer Harris over Newsom, 34% to 14%.

Darryn Harris noted that the recent UC Berkeley-Politico survey had cross-tabs for white, Hispanic, and other races, but not specifically for Black voters.

“It was Black voters who sent [Kamala Harris] to the [California] Office of the Attorney General, it was Black voters who sent her to the Senate, and it was Black voters who also sent her to the White House, and Black voters who voted for her for president. So I think that if this were amongst Black voters…the results may look, you know, very different.”

Aimee Allison, a California-based political organizer and Founder and President of She The People, told theGrio, “It’s not like Gavin Newsom is like immensely popular with Black voters here in California, in the sense of, you know, overwhelmingly popular.”

However, Allison explained it’s not surprising that Newsom has edged out Harris among Californians overall.

“California is the blue wall, and California voters, perhaps more than any other state, have an appetite for fighting Trump and fighting MAGA,” she said. Newsom, whom Allison said has “thrown out the old playbook” of Democrats, has “positioned himself” as Trump’s “foil,” adding, “He’s made himself the most visible, consistent critic.” Newsom has repeatedly used his social media to troll the president, mocking Trump’s brash and braggadocio style of communication.

Kamala Harris has used her ongoing book tour for “107 Days” to criticize Trump and Republicans, often generating social media clips and headlines. Allison said that has served as a “good tool” for the former Vice President to amplify her microphone. However, she added that because there is no “direct signal” that she’s “taking the fight to Trump” and “absolutely running” in 2028.

“She’s not signaling a decisive move, and she’s assessing things. Even her base is confused about what that means,” said Allison. “Does that mean that she’s taking the elder stateswoman route…that she wants to influence outside of public office?”

The women of color-focused leader also expressed concern for what she sees as the Democratic Party going “backwards” when it comes to backing Black female candidates. The UC Berkeley and Politico poll also surveys “policy influencers,” 2% of whom backed Harris versus the 17% who backed Newsom.

“Ten years ago, the Democratic Party was so entrenched with white candidates…it really shut out a lot of really excellent Black women and other women of color candidates,” said Allison. “I feel like the Democratic Party, instead of advancing and leaning into the fact that we can win with obviously a set of politics and policy, but also non-white men candidates, like I feel they followed suit and kind of have retracted into the issue of electability.”

But while mostly white political insiders may be moving on from Kamala Harris, the Democratic base has not. When asked about their level of excitement for candidates, 41% said they were excited about Harris running again in 2028, and 48% said they were excited about Newsom’s possible run.

“Before reading [this poll], I assumed that the former vice president may be dealing with some fatigue from so much national exposure. But the poll’s excitement numbers suggest some enthusiasm for her, even now,” said Darryn Harris, the Democratic strategist. “She hasn’t even set out on a campaign yet. It’s not been clear if she will.”

The California insider added, “I think that there will be some opportunity, some room for her to strengthen those numbers if she were seriously considering a run for the White House based on these results.”