The Kansas City Chiefs’ dynasty: Over or on hold?

When critics point to the Kansas City Chiefs’ failure to make the playoffs this season, Rod Graves can only chuckle.

Graves was a longtime NFL scout and player-personnel official who held high-ranking positions at both the club and league levels. He knows firsthand how hard it is to win consistently in the NFL – let alone achieve the Chiefs’ historic success.

Although the Chiefs’ decade-long run of dominance ended with their elimination from playoff contention in Week 15, they still have head coach Andy Reid and quarterback Patrick Mahomes. In the Chiefs’ bid to re-climb the mountain, Graves said, Reid and Mahomes figure to be cornerstones of that process, too.

“At some point, mortality catches up with all of us. And for the great ones, over time, it will eventually erode your greatness,” Graves said last week in a phone interview. “Eventually, time – and the rules of the NFL – will pull the great ones back to earth. It’s just a fact. We’ve seen it happen with every [dynasty]. Remember, with the incredible success the Chiefs have had, every year you’re drafting [late in the first round].

“One day you look up, and your stars aren’t quite as durable and productive as they used to be, you don’t have as many impact players as you once had, you don’t have as much depth. And injuries, obviously, can rock your foundation. That’s why I marvel at what the Chiefs, and not many others in history, have sustained over long periods. It’s so few teams, like the [New England] Patriots and the [Pittsburgh] Steelers back in the day.”

Before focusing on where the Chiefs may be headed, it’s important to review where they’ve been. The Patriots and Steelers are particularly pertinent to that discussion.

This season, the Chiefs’ following streaks ended:

–10 consecutive playoff berths, second only in NFL history to New England, which had 11 consecutive postseason appearances from 2009-2019;

–Nine straight AFC West Division titles, second only to the Patriots, who won 11 straight division titles (2009-2019);

–Seven consecutive appearances in the AFC Championship Game, second only to the Patriots, who went to eight straight conference championship games (2011-2018).

Moreover, the Chiefs’ domination of a league whose rules are designed to produce parity includes five appearances in the past six Super Bowls and three Super Bowl victories. In 2023, the Chiefs became the first team since the Patriots in 2005 to win back-to-back titles.

The Steelers of the 1970s set the standard for repeating as Super Bowl champions, accomplishing the feat twice. In fact, one could make a strong argument that the Chiefs (to this point) have achieved the fourth-greatest dynasty of the Super Bowl era – trailing only those of the Patriots, Steelers and San Francisco 49ers of the 1980s.

In addition to their perfect 4-0 record in Super Bowls during the ’70s, the Steelers also won six consecutive AFC Central titles and reached the conference championship game five times in six seasons. During the ’80s, the 49ers, among their many accomplishments, won four Super Bowl championships, including back-to-back titles. They also appeared in five conference championship games over eight seasons and won five straight division titles.

Graves remembers. In 1984, he began his NFL career as a regional scout for the Chicago Bears. He rose in the organization, becoming Chicago’s director of college scouting and then its director of player personnel.

Later in his career, Graves would go on to become the general manager of the Arizona Cardinals. Having played key roles in the construction of many rosters through the years, Graves has great admiration for Chiefs general manager Brett Veach.

“You look at the job he has done … just outstanding,” Graves said. “To be able to work within the salary cap and win the way they have is special. It starts with ownership – but you need to have someone put it [the roster] together year after year.”

Clearly, this hasn’t been the Chiefs’ year.

Kansas City (6-9) has struggled in every facet of the game – offense, defense and special teams. With two games remaining on their schedule, the Chiefs will finish with their first losing record since 2012 – the season before Reid and Veach arrived.

Moving forward on offense, Reid and Veach must improve the team’s running game to reduce the burden on Mahomes. Defensively, the Chiefs have been too reliant on blitzing to generate pressure, leaving their secondary vulnerable in coverage. Defensive coordinator Steve Spagnuolo’s unit needs better edge rushers. Even placekicker Harrison Butker, a special-teams star during the Chiefs’ ascent, has been uncharacteristically shaky at times.

Whether the Chiefs’ dynasty is over or merely on pause, however, will depend largely on Mahomes’ return from knee surgery.

The future Hall of Famer had surgery Dec. 15 on his left knee to repair torn ligaments (ACL and LCL) he suffered on a noncontact injury late in the loss to the Chargers. No one knows for sure how Mahomes will fare in rehab. He could miss time next season.

Count on Mahomes attacking the process the same way he does a defense, Reid said.

“There have been some pretty good quarterbacks that have had this same injury, and they’ve done pretty well after they came back,” Reid told reporters in Kansas City last week. “He’ll get after it. He has good people here to rehab him, and he’ll get in here and be right on top of all that.”

It’s easy to understand why Reid – and the entire Chiefs organization, for that matter – are eagerly awaiting Mahomes’ return.

A three-time Super Bowl winner and a three-time Super Bowl MVP, Mahomes has set the standard for active NFL quarterbacks. In addition to his stunning success in the most meaningful games – his 81% winning percentage is the highest in NFL history among quarterbacks who have appeared in at least 20 postseason games – Mahomes is a two-time Associated Press NFL MVP, and he also owns an AP Offensive Player of the Year award.

Warren Moon knows a little something about quarterback play as well.

The only Black passer enshrined in the Pro Football Hall of Fame, Moon has followed Mahomes’ career closely. Obviously, it’s always unfortunate when a player suffers a significant injury, Moon said. That established, Mahomes could benefit from his forced break.

“This could be a blessing in disguise – just the time he’ll now have to exhale,” Moon said last week in a phone interview. “He’ll be able to get away and kind of recharge his battery. You don’t want to have a major injury to do it, but with the way Patrick is, this might be the only thing that would slow him down.

“He can rehab, rest his body from all the pounding he has taken over the last [eight] years and refocus. And he’ll probably be a better leader when he comes back. What he’ll have a chance to do is look at the big picture. He’ll be able to take the time and look at what he has done in the game so far, where he is right now and where he wants to go. When he comes back, he’ll be that much hungrier.”

Make no mistake, the Reid-Mahomes-led Chiefs still have a story to tell. But whether the next chapters will be page-turners like the preceding ones remains to be seen.

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