‘The American Carnival’: Halftime power rankings Part 2

‘The American Carnival’ is a yearlong cultural examination of the impact of the Super Bowl halftime show far beyond entertainment. Through history, politics, race, economics and music, the series explores how 12 minutes on the most-watched stage in the country often say more about America than the game itself.

Whew! Much has changed since our first rankings. While four of the top five remain the same, the energy around them has shifted dramatically. We’ve also expanded this to 10 candidates, though we’ll reserve the bulk of the discussion for the top five.

We’re still about two months away from the NFL announcing who’ll be performing at SoFi Stadium on Valentine’s Day 2027. The last time the Super Bowl was in Inglewood, California — 2022, in case you’re wondering — Dr. Dre and Snoop Dogg delivered a performance that shaped the scope, scale and absurdity of just how audacious a halftime show could be in the social media age.

That’s what’s on the line here. The past, present and future of the halftime show. 

Training camps start later this month. One team will win the annual war of attrition and become the last squad standing come February. With the halftime performance, however, that road is already underway. Let’s take a look at who’s rising, falling and just who really has a shot at the concert the entire country will watch — and debate for years.

10. SZA

Though her most recent album was released more than a year and a half ago, SZA still commands a metric ton of attention. She proved beyond the shadow of a doubt that she wasn’t merely a complementary act on the GNX Tour alongside Kendrick Lamar. She’s a superstar in her own right. She’s got the catalog, the hits and the stage presence that would make her worthy of being just the fourth Black woman to headline the halftime show — joining Diana Ross (1996), Beyoncé (2013) and Rihanna (2023).

9. Harry Styles

Here’s hoping Styles continues to recover after a scary incident last month when he collapsed on stage during his 12-night Together Together residency at Wembley Stadium in London. As said previously, this isn’t about whether Styles could deliver a stellar show. He absolutely would — and, again, the faint thought of a One Direction reunion is reason enough to keep him in mind. It’s about whether the timing works.

8. Olivia Rodrigo

Stage presence? Check. Catalog? 100 percent. Crossover appeal? Not that the halftime show needs to concern itself with that, but Olivia’s got that, too. She’s already headlined internationally known festivals such as Glastonbury. The halftime stage wouldn’t intimidate her at all. Plus, records like “Vampire” and “Good 4 U” would translate well in Los Angeles come February.

7. Dua Lipa

To be honest, don’t be shocked if you see her name start creeping up the list in the coming installments. She’s globally known. Her streaming numbers are massive. And, with records like “Don’t Start Now,” “New Rules,” “Levitating” and “Sweetest Pie” with Megan Thee Stallion (a Roc Nation artist, mind you), one could argue it’s amazing she hasn’t already graced the biggest stage in American entertainment.

6. Ariana Grande

The pop superstar’s new project, Petal, drops July 31. Unless the album is a dud, it’s hard to imagine a world where Grande doesn’t get a swell of Grammy nominations in all the big categories. Also, the caliber and depth of her catalog makes her an artist worthy of the Super Bowl halftime stage.

5. Charli XCX

• Cultural momentum: 8/10
• Catalog infrastructure: 9/10
• Storyline: 9/10
• Showtime acumen: 9/10
• NFL compatibility: 8/10

Halftime probability score: 43/50

The Case For: It’s redundant to say this, but the catalog, the catalog, the catalog. To even be considered for a stage of this magnitude, the catalog has to be impenetrable. “Boom Clap” and “Apple” sound like Super Bowl tailor-made songs. Yet, her biggest appeal? Charli has a generation that the NFL covets deeply in a chokehold, and that’s Gen Z. Her “Brat” movement became a worldwide phenomenon. If we want an artist who can make a real statement and showcase younger talent, she’s nearly the perfect choice.

The Case Against: As someone familiar with Charli’s music and energy told me recently, “[She] would put on a helluva show, but the FCC would probably sue them.”

4. Taylor Swift

• Cultural momentum: 8/10
• Catalog infrastructure: 10/10
• Storyline: 8/10
• Showtime acumen: 10/10
• NFL compatibility: 9/10

Halftime probability score: 45/50

The Case For: This reasoning hasn’t changed since the first installment. If she wants to do the show, she’s doing the show, and the NFL will reap the benefits magnificently from it.

The Case Against: She got married this month. The halftime announcement is likely to come in September. Maybe, just maybe, Swift wants to enjoy those early days of marriage simply enjoying such and not have to balance her husband’s NFL career — a major season, given the Chiefs’ disappointment last year — and her own NFL-adjacent responsibility. Maybe. Plus, this would be an access-and-proximity pick, because it’s not as if Swift has been super active in 2026.

3. Cardi B

• Cultural momentum: 8/10
• Catalog infrastructure: 9/10
• Storyline: 9/10
• Showtime acumen: 10/10
• NFL compatibility: 10/10

Halftime probability Score: 46/50

The Case For: Though many did, I don’t consider Cardi’s appearance at Bad Bunny’s set this year a performance. Why? Because she didn’t…perform. In a Spaces conversation on X in May, Cardi spoke about the deep desire to go on tour again following the resounding success of her Little Miss Drama Tour. “I didn’t ‘supposedly’ gross $70 million,” she said. “It actually did gross $70 million.” She’s long proved she could command a stage of that magnitude and has an even deeper catalog in tow now. Also, equally as important in all this, she’d be a media darling in the road leading up to The American Carnival aka Super Bowl LXI. For what it’s worth, too, Cardi did perform at entrepreneur Michael Rubin’s White Party over Fourth of July weekend.

The Case Against: That same tour we just spoke about? It’s over now, and while Cardi isn’t sitting at home twiddling her thumbs, her motion has motioned at higher frequencies in the past. At least in the past two years (Kendrick Lamar and Bad Bunny), Roc Nation has opted for artists who had the most undeniable years. Cardi’s a phenomenal choice — hence her No. 3 ranking — but she’s not “undeniable” right now either.

2. Justin Bieber

• Cultural momentum: 9/10
• Catalog infrastructure: 10/10
• Storyline: 9/10
• Showtime acumen: 10/10
• NFL compatibility: 9/10

Halftime probability score: 47/50

The Case For: Up until Jay-Z’s New York homecoming, there hasn’t been an artist in 2026 with a bigger musical moment than Justin Bieber’s Coachella headlining show. It garnered nearly 150 million global views, and in the weeks following the performance, Bieber remained the top-streamed artist on Spotify. He logged 431 million streams in a single week in April. I’m not even an analytics guy like that, but those numbers speak for themselves. Now imagine that with a stage the entire world sees at the same time, for the biggest audience in American pop culture. The only requirement is that he can’t play songs off his laptop (like he did at Coachella) or wear only boxers (like he did at the Grammys). Other than that, the stage is set almost perfectly for Bieber to run through a medley of his biggest hits — of which he has a ton.

The Case Against: It’s a great look regardless, but I haven’t decided yet if Bieber doing halftime at the World Cup final makes his Super Bowl case stronger or weaker. It’s been hard to pin down where Justin is, mentally speaking, in recent years. Doing halftime means more than the 15 minutes he’d be on stage. Would he want to agree with the requirements and endless media obligations of the halftime show? Maybe; he has been a megastar for more than half his life. But that’s also why he might not even want to bother.

1. JAŸ-Z

• Cultural momentum:10/10
• Catalog infrastructure: 10/10
• Storyline: 9/10
• Showtime acumen: 9/10
• NFL compatibility: 10/10

Halftime probability score: 48/50

The Case For: It sounds unbelievable, but no artist has been more visible in 2026 than JAŸ-Z. From amazement, controversy, nostalgia and everywhere in between, Shawn Corey Carter has once again proved there are few in music history who can quarterback a rollout quite like him. His Roots Picnic performance confirmed his stage command hasn’t dwindled in the least bit. Meanwhile, his Yankee Stadium sold-out, three-night run was a banner moment in a career bursting at the seams with them. There are more shows in Los Angeles and Paris in the fall, too. And who knows what else is in the works — perhaps new music? Don’t expect a freestyle if Jay graces the Super Bowl stage. Then again, it’s Jay, so anything is on the table. But for a living legend who has done everything an artist could, except this one thing, it’s hard to think of a better time to check off that final box.

The Case Against: The obvious, honestly. Would the man who helped reinvent the Super Bowl halftime stage to the most coveted platform in American entertainment actually want to headline it himself?

The post ‘The American Carnival’: Halftime power rankings Part 2 appeared first on Andscape.