In what comes as a little surprise, Olivia Rodrigo‘s latest album – the June 12-released ‘You Seem Pretty Sad for a Girl So in Love‘ – is an out-of-the-box success.

Coming as the follow-up to 2023’s chart-topping ‘Guts,’ ‘Sad’ – Rodrigo’s third studio effort – is marching to Billboard 200 chart battle on the wings of the Hot 100 #1 smash ‘Drop Dead’ and its top 10 successor ‘The Cure.’

As if capitalizing on the buzz from those hit singles wasn’t enough pressure for the 23-year-old hitmaker, the 13-track affair – helmed primarily by GRAMMY-winning producer-songwriter Daniel Nigro – also has the pressure of stacking up to its blockbuster predecessors that both topped the all-genre tally upon their respective arrivals.

Look inside to see how industry analysts predict ‘Sad’ will perform commercially by the end of its inaugural sales tracking week.

Olivia Rodrigo’s ‘Sad’ 

Predicted First-Week Sales (SPS):  450,000 units

Predicted Billboard 200 Debut:  #1

According to HDD, ‘Sad’ will leave Olivia everything but with its handsome first-week total sales of 450,000 units.

If the prediction rings true, the 3-time GRAMMY winner’s LP will score the highest opening figures of any album released by a female artist in 2026

Among all acts, only Drake‘s ‘Iceman‘ (463,000) and BTS‘ ‘Arirang‘ (641,000) have debuted to higher sums so far this year.

As if that’s not enough to celebrate, ‘Sad’ – a shoo-in for #1 on next week’s Billboard 200 – will likely also claim the title of highest first-week sales of Olivia’s career yet as 2021’s ‘Sour‘ and 2023’s ‘Guts‘ opened to totals of 295,000 and 302,000 respectively.

Keep it locked to That Grape Juice for the official final figures of Liv’s new LP once they drop on Sunday (June 21).

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